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Maxime Bernier close to winning his old riding of Beauce

Bernier, the ex-CPC MP who's no stranger to controversy, may win his old riding of Beauce after all.

The PPC has recently made a name for itself in attending the Tuesday’s “Unmask the Children Rally” in Etobicoke, Ont., and said his campaign hopes to tap into Canadian’s anger over major issues such as the COVID-19 pandemic response and immigration. Billboards for the PPC encapsulate that core campaign messaging with the slogan “the other options suck.”

Now have this changed? The answer is yes. Recent polls show the PPC to be doing much stronger than they did back in 2019, being neck-and-neck with the Bloc Quebecois, which only runs MPs in Quebec. This may indicate wider dissatisfaction with the mainstream Conservatives; something that can also be seen through the creation of the Western seperatist "Maverick Party."

However, 7% may not necessarily translate into seats in Parlaiment - with one exception. Maxime Bernier, who is running in his old seat of Beauce, is actually the second-place candidate behind Richard Lehoux, the CPC incumbent. Over the last year, Bernier's odds of winning the seat have fluctuated between 25% to as high as 50%. With this in mind, the PPC is set to collect 33% of the vote in Beauce compared to Lehoux's 37%. This gap of 4% can easily be bridged in a month, specifically if Bernier goes all in to win back his old riding.

Given this, 2021 may see the first PPC candidate in history elected to federal office. Only time will tell over the next month, but it's likely Bernier has a trick up his sleeve.

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