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Liberals to win all seats in Newfoundland legislature? Definitely possible, says pollsters

Newfoundland and Labrador Premier Andrew Furey has called a provincial election for Feb. 13.

This election will be the fourth since the COVID-19 pandemic begun, following elections in Saskatchewan, British Columbia and New Brunswick. In all cases, the government maintained or increased the amount of seats they held in their respective legislatures.

However, the polls are on Furey's side, who has only been in power since August, where he replaced his Liberal predecessor, Premier Dwight Ball. Furey's main competition is Progressive Conservatives heading the opposition. They are led by Ches Crosbie, son of politician John Crosbie, who served in the cabinets of both Joe Clark and Brian Mulroney

According to the most recent Mainstream Research poll, 62% of voters plan to vote Liberal, with the PCs in a very distant second with only 26%. A previous poll from December 23 has the Liberals even higher at a whopping 65%. It is entirely possible that the Liberals may win every seat in the Newfoundland House of Assembly; a feat that has only happened twice in Canadian history, both times in Atlantic Canada. The first was in 1935 in PEI, and the second was in 1987 in New Brunswick.

In the latter, Frank McKenna won every seat in the New Brunswick legislature with 60% of the vote, bringing an end to the 17-year long premiership of Richard Hatfield. Such supermajorities are rare in Canadian politics, and they usually result in atypical landslide wins due to the first-past-the-post system. One has to only think back to the 1984 federal election, where Mulroney, with just 50% of the vote, won 211 out of 282 seats (more than 75%). With more than 60%, Furey may be in charge of a House of Assembly where the PCs and the NDP are reduced to an extra-parliamentary opposition.

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