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Latest federal poll shows abysmal CPC results

Things couldn't possibly be much worse for the Conservatives right now.

A recent poll conducted by Innovative Research shows the Liberals with 38% (up +5), the CPC with 27% (-7), the NDP at 15% (-1), the Greens with 8% (+1), the Bloc at 8% (-) and the PPC at 4% (+2).

A further breakdown can be done by province and by gender per Ipsos. In Canada's three most populated provinces, Trudeau hag a strong lead.

  • In Ontario, the Liberals (41%) lead the Conservatives (34%), NDP (20%) Green Party (3%) and others (2%)

  • In Quebec, the Liberals (40%) have a ten-point lead over the Bloc (30%), with the Tories (15%) in third, NDP (9%), Greens (5%) and others (1%) behind.

  • In British Columbia, the Liberals (36%) are in the lead, with the NDP (28%) and Conservatives (26%) tied in second. The Green Party has 9%.

  • In Alberta, the Tories (36%) lead the NDP (30%), but just barely. The Liberals (24%) are in third, the Greens in fourth (5%) and others (4%). Kenney's poor standing has obviously impacted federal support for the Conservatives.

  • In Saskatchewan and Manitoba, the Conservatives (39%) are in first, followed by the Liberals (28%), NDP (26%) and Greens (7%).

  • In Atlantic Canada, the Liberals (50%) have a supermajority, followed by the NDP (26%), Conservatives (22%), and the Greens (2%).

By demographic, women evidently favor the Liberals over all other parties. The Liberals (37%) are in first, followed by the NDP (27%), Conservatives (24%), Bloc (5%), Greens (5%) and others (1%).

Among men, the gap is not so large, but the Liberals are still in first place. They maintain 39% over the Conservatives (33%). Conservatives in Canada traditionally poll better with men, so this result is concerning indeed. The NDP (15%), Bloc (7%), Greens (4%) and People’s Party (2%) follow.

Another concern is among older Canadians; another traditional bloc that votes blue.. Among those aged 55+, the Liberals (39%) actually lead the Conservatives (34%). The NDP (14%), Bloc (6%), Greens (6%) and others (2%) lag behind.

Among those aged 35-54, the Liberals (41%) have a lead over the Conservatives (25%), NDP (22%), Bloc (7%), Greens (4%) and others (2%). Among those aged 18-34, the Liberals (33%) and NDP (30%) are neck and neck. The Tories are in third place (26%) , while the Bloc (6%), Greens (3%) and others (2%) further back.

Why the drastic change in support from men and older people? Back in January, we cited a particularly relevant statement by Maclean's: "Occam’s razor rule of parsimony wisely states, sometimes the simplest and most obvious explanation is the correct one. From the graph above, it appears that the Liberal Party started distancing the Conservatives in February, which coincided when many senior voters in Canada were getting their first jab." Since the beginning of 2021, as Liberals began vaccinating seniors first, Conservative support was sapped. Consider January, before the vaccination programme began in earnest; the CPC actually led among older voters at 35% over the Liberals. Given that Canada began having one of the fastest vaccination rates in the world by April, it's no surprise Trudeau's popularity has shot up as well.

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