Conservatives dip in polls again; Liberal majority likely

It appears that the Liberals are likely to regain a majority government in the next federal election, a new poll suggests, whereas support for the Conservatives appears to be on the decline.

The latest Ipsos poll found that 38 per cent of decided voters are planning to vote for the Liberals if the election were held tomorrow, a number unchanged from last month.

By stark contrast, the Conservatives would only earn a paltry 26 per cent of the vote, down three points since May. The party lags behind the Liberals in every age group and every region of the country except for the Prairies, where the Tories remain the most popular choice among voters.

“If (the Liberals) are considering having an election, this is as good a position as they’ve been in since … the 2015 election,” said Darrell Bricker, CEO of Ipsos Public Affairs.

“(Conservative Leader) Erin O’Toole, if he was looking at these numbers, would have to be very worried.”

The NDP also dropped one point from last month to earn 20 per cent of the vote, the poll also suggests, while the Bloc Quebecois would receive eight per cent nationally (34 per cent in Quebec), up two points. The Greens saw a four-point bump to earn seven per cent of the vote.

The Ipsos poll surveyed 1,501 Canadians online and by telephone earlier this month — there is widespread speculation that a potential summer or fall election may occur as COVID-19-related health restrictions are lifted .

Trudeau has also received approval over his performance as prime minister, with 52 per cent of those surveyed saying they approve of the job he and his government are doing. Over four in 10 Canadians believe Trudeau’s Liberals deserve re-election, the poll also suggests.

The Liberals currently maintain strong leads in British Columbia (36 per cent support) and Atlantic Canada (46 per cent). Bricker noted that Trudeau’s inability to gain ground in Alberta, Saskatchewan and Manitoba — where his party holds less than 30 per cent support — suggests western alienation will stick around if the Liberals stay in power.

“Can they win seats in urban Alberta, urban Saskatchewan or urban Manitoba?” he asked. “They want to form a truly national government, (but) leaving that part of the population out of what the victory is going to be, we’ll continue on with the same problems that we currently have.”