338 predicts NDP Notley supermajority in Alberta

Despite Alberta’s equalization referendum's results favouring the "Yes" side, it does not appear this victory will help Jason Kenney regain support for his premiership, at least in the short term, according to the latest polling out of Alberta.

Two Alberta polls were published earlier this month by Mainstreet Research (for the Western Standard) and Innovative Research; both of which give the NDP 45 per cent support among Alberta voters compared to 29 per cent for Jason Kenney’s UCP.

If this is true, the UCP vote go went 54 per cent in the last general election to polling at or below the 30 per cent mark in just two and a half years. Could there be so many UCP-to-NDP switchers in the province? It's possible, but more likely is that the UCP drop is the product of an increasing number of disaffected UCP voters (see Maclean's), who are less likely to show up on voting day for any party. If this is true, this'll easily tip the scales towards Notley.

So how does this translate into seats?

As of this week, the Alberta NDP is strongly favoured to win the most seats had a provincial election been held this week. The 338 test model shows the NDP sweeping 60 seats, well above the 44 needed for a majority.

If these numbers are accurate and Kenney does little before the next election, the UCP will be swept "out of urban Alberta and could potentially even lose a fraction of its rural base. Without any strong third-party support in Alberta (neither the Alberta Party nor the Wildrose Independence Party would be favoured to win a single seat), the NDP would most likely win a majority with strong numbers from both Calgary and Edmonton, and pockets of support out of rural Alberta." (Maclean's).

This is reflected in official polling maps, which show the UCP completely cut out of Alberta's urban ridings, not having a polling majority in even one.